Forecasting Population demographics in Lilongwe city: Leveraging Prophet and Time series analysis Techniques

Population demographics provides grounds for forecasting due to complex nature of various editions of population figures. The accurate prediction of population demographics is pivotal for urban planning, resource allocation, and the development of effective policies.  In this paper, we utilize historical demographic data collected over time to forecast future demographic trends, enabling informed decision-making by local authorities and urban planners. The study begins by gathering and preprocessing a comprehensive dataset that encompasses various demographic variables, such as age, gender, income, education level, and occupation, among others. We employ Prophet, a robust forecasting tool, with diverse time series analysis methods. It examines historical demographic data, refining models using Prophet’s flexibility and traditional time series techniques like ARIMA and exponential smoothing. By leveraging Prophet and time series analysis, this paper aims to offer accurate forecasts of population dynamics, age structures and migration trends, providing valuable insights for urban planning and policy formulation.

Keywords: population demographics, ARIMA, prophet, time series analysis.